Old Cars vs. New

I'd guess the collector's market will collapse altogether in the next 20-30 years, when the lithium air battery will replace gas and the driverless car will put the cost of personal insurance beyond the reach of nearly everyone. Collecting gas cars that you have to drive yourself will be like collecting horse carriages. Only a few will have the interest and fewer still will have the means. Almost all of our Rivs are headed for the recycling center. Enjoy them as much as you can while you can.

Jack:

I hope you're wrong. If you're right it sounds like a very boring future.

ghpcnm wrote:

Jack:

I hope you're wrong. If you're right it sounds like a very boring future.

I keep reading that young people today see computers and iPods as greater "objects of aspiration" than cars. It's already begun.

There are plenty of car guys left in the world. Young ones, even. Drifting, once a hobby in Japan, has gained much popularity abroad, and now is a judged sport. It's not motorsport in the same way auto racing is, but it definitely shows interest in real driving. Worldwide, auto racing is still among the most watched sporting events. There is still a public interest in cars and driving them. Not all hope is lost.

As long as we still have it, gasoline remains an incredibly efficient way to store and convert energy for vehicles. I think hybrids will be around for a good while. Gasoline will eventually go away, but the act of driving itself will stay for a long, long time, imo

When it gets to the point of eliminating drivers entirely, cars themselves will be replaced by an enhanced public transportation system. It doesn't really make sense for anyone to own a car they can't drive. Just get on the bus/train. Doesn't sound practical for everyone? That's why I think that day is very far off.

I've used public transportation. It blows. A lot. It smells like puke, vomit, sweat and unwashed bodies. The only seat is next to the crazy guy mumbling to himself. There's another crazy guy at the bus stop waiting to push people under the bus. Street hustlers know the bus stop is a good spot to prey on people. You can't take hardly anything on the bus, like your groceries or whatever you might get while shopping. I saw a guy get his bicycle stolen off the bike rack once. A thief was waiting at the bus stop, he just ran up and grabbed it and was gone, with the owner yelling at him.

It's inconvenient as hell. You work on the bus's schedule and you'd better catch it.

Let's not forget how much of a problem Japan has with women getting groped on its train system.

The truth is that public transportation, greenness aside, is a terrible tranportation solution. It absolutely makes sense to own a car even if you can't drive it. A car takes you where you want to go when you want to go. It protects you from crazies and molestors pretty well. It can be clean and well appointed. Any beat up old car is worlds better than public transportation.

As for enthusiast driving, consider how much enthusiast cars are subsidized by appliance cars. There is no WRX STI without the lowly Legacy. The big plus here is that electric cars are easier to develop, so it may not be such a big deal to convert a rolling office/living room into a Ferrari. I think the insurance situation will kill most people though, but here's another thing - what happens when you take your performance car and perform in view of a bunch of networked, driverless cars? Will they snitch on you? Makes sense that they would, doesn't it? They're going to talk to each other and the cops about the driving hazard they've encountered. Where are you going to drive at?

Gas has an advantage over electric as long as batteries are weak, but the energy density of lithium air promises to be on par with gas. That means the next generation of battery will be better than gas. Gas will become as significant as steam - the internal combustion engine is a joke compared to the electric motor. It's complicated, hard to work on, takes up too much space in the car and makes the center of gravity too high. The torque curve is terrible. Racers won't want it.

It isn't all doom and gloom though. In all honesty I'd trade every driving experience I ever had to get back the time I spent behind the wheel, most of which wasn't fun. I had a 2 hour commute in college, more at my first real job. What a waste.

Wow, I don't know where you live Jack, but here in NYC, public transportation is pretty awesome. I just retired after 30 years working for the Dept of Buses as a supervisor. I've been using public transportation all my life to get into the city. Every once in awhile, I have a problem, but with a system this size, moving the amount of people it does, there are bound to be problems every so often. I'm going to city field tonight to see a Met game, and Wednesday, I'm seeing "Wicked" on Broadway. Friday it's up to Yankee Stadium to see them play. I wouldn't even think to drive. Public transportation is the way to go here. The bus to the train. Works great here.


As far as people no longer driving, honestly, I think I'll be dead and buried by the time that happens. The amount of interest in classic and modified cars, here in NY, is literally off the hook. I go to several cruise nights in my 1970 Buick, and I need to go early. The amount of cars that show up at these events far outstrips the capacity to park them. Even with this economy and gas prices, I don't see it slowing down at all. Maybe NY is different from the rest of the country?

Boston has an excellent public transportation system, IF you are:

a) traveling during main commuting hours.
and
b) traveling to/from the hub, or along a spoke of the system.

If only one or the other of a/b, or something different (work along the circular commuting routes around boston), the public transportation system is useless. Off hours it can get filled with creeps but is generally not too bad. Weekends it is so underutilized it might as well be shut down.

If you are lucky there are rural bus routes convenient to your commute. If not the bus routes are nonsensical.


We should have a thread about the pros/cons of public transportation!